Trump’s Tariffs and India’s Russian Oil Imports: A Waiting Game

The impact of Donald Trump’s tariff measures on India’s energy trade is beginning to draw attention, particularly in relation to Russian oil imports. While Washington has intensified its rhetoric against New Delhi’s reliance on discounted Russian crude, the effect of this pressure is yet to be fully measured.

July and August witnessed a dip in Russian oil arrivals at Indian ports. However, industry observers point out that this trend was more a result of narrowing discounts on Russian crude rather than political intervention. Import cargoes for those months were contracted weeks before Trump escalated his stance against India in July and announced an additional round of tariffs on Indian goods in early August.

The more telling indicator lies in the shipments scheduled for September and October. Initial tanker data suggests a decline in Russian crude loadings bound for India compared to July levels. If sustained, this could signal the first signs of Indian refiners recalibrating purchases under heightened U.S. pressure.

Yet, the picture remains incomplete. Several tankers carrying Russian crude are presently routed towards Egypt’s Port Said. Analysts note that these cargoes may still be redirected to India, depending on market dynamics and pricing. This uncertainty makes it premature to conclude that Trump’s tariff moves have forced a major shift in India’s Russian oil imports.

For now, the real test will be the discharge of Russian cargoes at Indian ports during September and October. Only then will it become clear whether New Delhi’s refiners are scaling back on Moscow’s crude under American pressure—or simply adjusting to changing price incentives.